Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
