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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still